The Unfiltered Ramblings of a DVR Addict

Survivor 20 episode 1: Heroes vs. Villains:  Odds to Win

Episode Summary:

After long introductions and several questions by Jeff, the tribes went into the first reward challenge.  This challenge was purely physical, and as expected, the Heroes tribe won (see spreadsheet predictions in post #1) the challenge and the reward of fire.  Highlights included:

1) Stephanie dislocating her shoulder and having medical pop it back in place

2) A topless Sugar running to the finish after Sandra unfastened her bikini while trying to prevent her from winning a point

3) Coach dragging Colby along the beach on his way to winning a point.  After this embarrassment, Colby may have to trade his Harley (if he still has one) for a more appropriate scooter–or moped.

4) Rupert breaks his toe, but promises that it won’t affect his game

5) James puts on a display of physical dominance that shows that he’s a man among boys

Tribes regrouped and worked on camp.  Sugar chooses Colby as a sleeping partner, but Colby is not interested.  He tries several times to get away from him, but she follows him like a stray dog after it’s been fed.  Colby is rightfully annoyed and not eager to keep her around.  Meanwhile, Jeri and Coach could be this season’s Rob and Amber…  At the villains camp, Rob defies the odds and makes fire using two sticks.  Alliance chatter begins between various players, but it’s still too early to see if these small alliances will emerge as a larger voting block.

The immunity challenge involved tribes building a boat, rowing out to a point in the water, returning, disassembling the boat, and then solving a puzzle.  Well, the heroes had an enormous lead (as expected) going into the puzzle, but they blew their lead on the puzzle.  Villains win and earn a big advantage in the game.  Sugar takes most of the blame and cries like a girl.  Back at camp, the Heroes tribe discusses who to vote off.  Names mentioned on camera included Sugar, Stephanie, Tom, and Cirie.   In the end, the tribe played it safe and voted off one of their biggest challenge liabilities–Sugar–in what appeared to be a unanimous vote.

Commentary

Episode 1 of Survivor Heroes vs. Villains did not disappoint.  While I disagree with Boston Rob’s assessment that his tribe had superior challenge strength, the Villains ended up with immunity, and have thus gained the advantage in the game.  Several of the themes that I touched on in the first post have already begun to manifest themselves in player strategies.  The most surprising thing that I saw in this episode is that people are already starting to pick targets based on past performance.  Discussions about voting off Tom were the most surprising.  You can argue that Cirie is a challenge liability, but she is stronger than most of the other women, so she has some use in women vs. women challenges (as long as there’s not a running component).

But in the end, tribal council went as expected, and Sugar was voted off.  I would have given her some credit for completing the reward challenge topless, but her annoying personality outweighed her bouncy effort.  I expect that these early episodes will have more of the same–lots of talk about strategies for voting off the more physical players, but when it comes down to it–you need those players on your team to increase your chances of going into the merge with numbers.  In the end, I expect that the weaker females, or maybe Randy will be next on the chopping block.

Based on the results of episode 1, I have updated the odds of winning for the remaining contestants:

Heroes:  Probability of winner coming from this tribe = 45% –this is a big swing and based solely on being down one member.

Colby – 9% – The Colby of ten years ago probably wouldn’t have gotten owned by Coach in the challenge, but this isn’t really a bad development for my original favorite.  It shows vulnerability, which suggests that he may be beaten in individual immunity challenges down the road.  Thus, the target on his back is a little smaller than it might have been going into the game.  I predicted that he would start forming an alliance with female tribe members, and it looks like we’re seeing one develop between Colby and Candice.  Neither have big targets on their backs as neither are former winners, or came up as big threats during voting discussions.  Look for them to start recruiting new members and taking control of the Heroes tribe.

Stephanie – 7% – This girl has balls!  She dislocates a shoulder, has it popped back in and then brushes if off like nothing happened.  She’s a stone cold competitor, but her tribe is already eyeing her as a threat.  She’ll need to get in the right alliance soon to decrease her chances of being voted off, but when it comes down to it, I think she’ll be safe for another few votes.  The tribe needs her physical strength too much.

Candice – 7% – Her play is looking good so far–no controversy, and she appears to be teaming up with Colby.  Also looks safe for the next few votes due to other tribe members who are deamed as bigger threats.

Rupert – 6% – Rupert’s odds hold firm.  He didn’t make any big moves in episode 1, but you can expect him to emerge as a bigger character in later episodes.  Rupert also feels like a safe choice to make it through the next couple votes.

Amanda – 4% – Amanda seems to be leaning towards a female alliance–primarily with Cirie, which I think is a bad decision.  She may have a prior relationship and be able to trust her, but unless she can convince a large number of tribe mates to vote with her, I think this will be the losing alliance on the tribe.

JT – 4% – Tom was right, JT does need him… but not for a while.  JT is going to be safe for a few votes, but his bigger challenge will be protecting Tom.  I’m not sure he’ll be able to muster enough support to do that, and if former winners start falling, then it’s hard to envision a scenario where JT goes into the final three.

James – 4% – I think James is untouchable before the merge.  The Heroes need his strength to have any chance of going into the merge with numbers.  But once the merge happens, any gratitude or brownie points that he earned are going to be worthless.

Tom – 3% – Tom was smart to recognize that he needs JT, but his bigger problem is that some of his tribe members have already fingered him as one of the biggest threats to long term success. He’s going to have to scramble to survive the next tribal council.

Cirie – 1% – After Sugar, I think Cirie has the least value in challenges AND other players are already targeting her because of her strategic play.  If the Heroes lose the next immunity challenge, I think she’s the next to go.  She needs a strong alliance, and she needs it fast.

Villains:  Probability of winner coming from this tribe = 55%–gotta love having numbers…

Russell – 13% – Russell should have raised his hand when Jeff asked the group if they thought that they should have been on the heroes tribe.  Nobody knows Russell and that’s a huge advantage.  Early on, it looks like he’s going to play the same game that he played in Samoa, and I think that’s going to take him a long way.  Already developing “alliances” with some of the women on his tribe, but has yet to approach Boston Rob, Coach, or Tyson.  He’s going to need at least one of them, but he’s probably just evaluating the field before he makes his move.

Coach – 9% – First he humiliates Colby in a challenge, and the next thing you know, there might be a budding romance between the Dragonslayer and Jeri…  Is it real, or is it the Jeri vs. Colby theme playing out for a third time, but in a twisted kind of way.  In any case, Coach’s stock went up with the tribe and I think he’s going to be safe until the merge.

Rob – 7% – I’m leaving my Boston Rob odds unchanged, but only because of the teaser where he passes out in the forest.  Boston Rob still has what it takes to control this game, but I think he’s a little softer than the old Rob.  Too many reality shows and a rich wife will tend to soften you up.  But he impressed the heck out of me when he started a fire with two sticks.

Danielle – 7% – She gets points for aligning with Russell, but it’s still too early to tell whether this is Russell’s main alliance or one of his temporary ones with a girl that he thinks he can manipulate.  But she’s still probably the strongest female on the tribe, so I expect her to go pretty far.

Parvati – 6% – Parvati also formed an alliance with Russell, but I don’t think she’ll stay true to it.  I think she was just telling him what he wanted to hear, but maybe that’s good enough for now.  If Russell thinks you’re on his team, you tend to stay in the game longer than those whom he feels otherwise about.

Jeri – 4% – Jeri and Coach, sitting in a tree…dragon s-l-a-y-i-n-g…  I think that Coach is going to end up in an alliance with Boston Rob, and if he takes Jeri with him, that’s going to increase her time in the game.  But she wasn’t approached by Russell, so he might have other plans.  But based on the cast of weaker women on this tribe, she might have enough to take her into the merge without Coach and/or Rob.

Tyson – 3% -He had a minor role in this episode.  This tribe will keep him until he’s no longer needed in challenges.

Sandra – 3% – Sandra sounded much more aggressive and strategic than I remember her.  Maybe winning has gone to her head.  Still, she’s not an obvious asset in challenges, and my guess is that she’ll be an outsider among the women in the tribe.  She’ll need to play a heck of a game to advance to the merge.

Randy – 2% – It’s just a matter of time before he gets let go.  I don’t think anyone on the tribe likes him (but maybe that’s a reason to keep him around).  At this point, I have to keep long odds on Randy.

Courtney – 1% -  Unless there’s a challenge where you have to lift a tribe member or crawl under something, I don’t think that Courtney will have a chance to prove her worth before she’s voted off.  Also, she’s one of three women that Russell has yet to approach with an “alliance” (on camera at least).  She’s still a safe bet for first Villain to be voted off.